Recent developments in the Middle East have given rise to a debate on the feasibility of reducing US military presence in the region. Following US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban was able to expand its control over larger areas. US Chief of Staff General Mark Milley stated on July 22 that “the Taliban gained strategic momentum in its attacks across Afghanistan, but its victory is far from guaranteed.” Meanwhile, reports indicated that the United States is in the process of redefining its military presence in Iraq, in conjunction with the Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi’s visit to Washington on July 26.

This debate is bolstered by US President Joe Biden’s stances during his 2020 presidential election campaign, in which he promised to make changes to the foreign policy pursued by former President Donald Trump. President Biden has so far adhered to this line, reducing American involvement in the Middle East and implementing plans to end “endless” American wars in the region by withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan, putting an end to the longest war in US history, as well as from Iraq.

President Biden’s moves to reduce US engagement in the Middle are linked to a decline in the region’s importance to US national interests and security compared to other regions that have become more important. Moreover, with the possibility of easing tension between the United States and Iran, numerous reports indicate US plans to reduce its military presence in the region and transfer forces to Asia. This has already begun in Afghanistan, and is underway in Iraq, especially after a series of missile attacks on US forces there by armed militias. The US has reached an agreement with Iraq to withdraw forces, shifting the focus of the US and international coalition in the war on ISIS in Iraq to training and the transfer of expertise to Iraqi security forces.

There is strong opposition within the US to the withdrawal from Afghanistan, with arguments that it would undermine the gains achieved by the United States over the past two decades. However, President Biden adhered to his decision to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan by September 11, a process likely to be completed before that date, with the exception of several hundred US soldiers who will remain to protect American diplomats and Kabul Airport.

US Motives for withdrawal

It can be argued that the Biden administration has several motives to withdraw forces from the Middle East, which include:

1. Public support for bringing troops home: American public opinion polls show increasing support for President Biden’s recent decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan and reduce direct US involvement in international conflicts and disputes. This shift is related to the high cost of the wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), which the public refuses to continue to bear. A poll taken by The Economist magazine, in cooperation with YouGov, from July 10 to 13, revealed that 57% of Americans agree with Biden’s decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan permanently, while only 21% object.

The poll also showed that Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike support the decision, at a rate of 72% of Democrats, 43%,of Republicans and 58%, of independents, while 13% of Democrats, 23% of independents, and 36% of Republicans opposed the decision.

Public support for president Biden’s policies to end America’s endless wars is consistent with the voter trends in the last three presidential elections, which skewed towards candidates who promised a less intrusive foreign policy and a reduction of US military involvement in foreign conflicts.

2. A Focus the Challenge from China: Since its first day in the White House, the Biden administration, like the Obama and Trump administrations, has focused on confronting China. The Interim Strategic Guidance for the National Security Strategy document, which presents the broadlines of President Biden’s policies regarding engagement with global actors. Statements by President Biden and members of his administration over the past six months reveal that Washington is engaging in strong competition with Beijing because of the perception that China challenges American power and influence globally, and negatively impacts the lives of millions of Americans, who are affected by Beijing’s industrial, technological, and trade policies.
3. The feasibility of relying on regional partners: The Biden administration believes that eliminating many of the first-tier leaders of ISIS in both Iraq and Syria helps reduce the level of threats posed by terrorist organizations at the international level. This allows for i the withdrawal of American forces, especially as it can be done in parallel with strengthening local forces, such as the Iraqi forces, and some militias, as is the case with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militia forces, to confront the cells affiliated with the organization in both countries. This can be done through US training.
4. Military interventions have not met with success: Some observers believe that US military intervention in the region have only resulted in failed states, who have lost control over their borders, as is evident in the case of Afghanistan.

Two opposing streams

The Biden administration’s decision to reduce US involvement in the Middle East has been met with two main schools of thought within the US. The first supports US disengagement, based on the argument that US security interests in the Middle East center on preventing nuclear proliferation and combating terrorism. Neither goal requires a large US military presence in the region and can be better achieved through diplomacy. US military presence in the region has, from this point of view, in fact only increased instability and failed to achieve security, and therefore a significant reduction of US military forces in the region may, conversely, enhance security and stability, and allow for the improvement of US diplomacy.

The second school of thought opposes the policy of withdrawing from the region, arguing that Washington still has important interests that require protection in the region, even if political, technological and social changes have made those interests less pertinent than they were a few decades ago. Withdrawing US forces from the region will have adverse effects stability and security, allowing both Iran and ISIS to expand their influence. This may necessitate active US engagement at a later date, under more perilous conditions, and at greater cost.

This debate is likely to continue for some time, especially as there is uncertainty regarding several regional issues, such as the possible outcomes of the Vienna negotiations with Iran, the continued attacks against American interests in Iraq, and the rising influence of the Taliban in Afghanistan.