Kazakhstan recently witnessed violent protests that came as a shock to many observers, as the country for decades was considered a bedrock of stability both politically and economically. While the government announced matters were once more under control, However, the underlying causes of the protests remain, raising questions regarding future stability, as well as potential consequences for the Middle East, because of the proximity of Kazakhstan and the close ties in terms of culture and religion.
These consequences are likely to relate to the impact on the price of oil, given that Kazakhstan is the largest oil producer in Central Asia. There is likely to be limited threats to Middle Eastern economic interests in the country, but instability may lead to increased activity of terrorist groups with links to the Middle East, which may spread throughout the region of central Asia. Russia’s intervention in Kazakhstan is likely to intensify US-Russian competition in Central Asia. On another note, instability in Kazakhstan may increase Chinese interest in concluding a free trade agreement with the Arab Gulf countries. Possible repercussions of events in Kazakhstan on the Middle East include the following:
The Effect on the price of oil: The instability in Kazakhstan, which is a member of OPEC, put new pressure on oil prices increase in the global market, in addition to increased demand related to the onset of cold weather, and other potential disruptions of production due to geopolitical tensions. Kazakhstan has the 12th biggest oil reserves in the world, as per the America Power Regulation Administration, estimated at 30 billion barrels of oil. These pressures could result in rising oil prices, which would benefit oil producing Arab countries, especially in the Gulf, but the Arab countries that import oil such as Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon, and Syria would face increased pressures on their state budgets.
Limited Threats to Economic Interests: The Arab world is not closely tied in trade with Kazakhstan, as not a single Arab state falls in the category of the top 5 trading partners with Kazakhstan. The countries with the largest trade relations with the country are Italy, China, Russia, Holland, and France. The only country in the Arab region that has trade relations with Kazakhstan is the UAE with a total worth of approximately 500 million dollars during the year 2019.
UAE investments may be impacted in the event the situation in Kazakhstan worsens. Most investments by the UAE in Central Asia are in Kazakhstan, as over 350 companies from the UAE work there with investments estimated at more than 181 million dollars in the year 2020. The Dubai Ports Authority took over a 49% share of the economic zone of the port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea and 51% of the economic zone in the city of Khorgas on the Chinese – Kazakh border. This points to further Emirati plans to increase the goods being transported by railroads and trucks from that city and the Caspian seas to Europe. The UAE has also invested in infrastructure, agriculture, power and mining, and there are plans for a chemical plant worth 1 billion dollars in the Atyrau region in Kazakhstan.
This goes to explain why the UAE was quick to announce its support to the Kazakhstan government following the protests, in a statement by Its foreign ministry which stated that “the UAE supports Kazakhstan in maintaining its security and stability through the institutions, constitution, and laws of Kazakhstan in a manner that achieves the hopes and dreams of the people of Kazakhstan”. Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, placed a phone call to the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym Tokayev, during which he affirmed his countries support to achieve stability in Kazakhstan and to maintain its security.
Increased Chinese Interest in the Free Trade Deal with the Gulf States: It was noteworthy that China invited the Arab Gulf states to attend a meeting to discuss the way forward to conclude a free trade deal soon after the events in Kazakhstan. China, the largest importer of crude oil in the world, is now worried about the increase in oil prices and has fears about Kazakhstan’s stability since it imports roughly 5% of its natural gas from Kazakhstan. China is now seeking to speed up the conclusion of a free trade deal with the GCC to ensure its supply of crude oil necessary to maintain its economic growth and to have multiple sources of energy.
The Rising Threat of Terrorist Groups from Central Asia: The accusations by the Kazakhstan president, whether or not valid, that “terrorist organizations trained abroad, some from the Middle East” were behind the protests illustrate the links between Kazakhstan and the Middle East. If instability continues in Kazakhstan, it could spread to other countries in Central Asia, opening the way for terrorist groups to expand their activities. This includes the branch of ISIS active in Afghanistan, the Uzbek Islamic Liberation Party, The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (who have ties with the Taliban), the Turkmenistan Islamic Party, and the Renaissance Tajikistan Movement. A revival of the strength of these groups would likely enhance terrorist activities in the Middle East as well.
Reducing the Geostrategic Importance of the Middle East: The crisis in Kazakhstan can further reduce US interest in the Middle East region, as the US will feel it must turn its attention not only to the Indo-Pacific region and its competition with China, but also to confront Russia in the resource rich region of Central Asia, as well as its potential threat to Ukraine.
The US could perceive a regime more open to the West in Kazakhstan could weaken Russia’s influence in that country and Central Asia as a whole and may reduce Russian pressure on other countries such as Georgia and Ukraine. Therefore, Central Asia may become an arena of rising competition between the world’s global powers, the US, China and Russia, as well as regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran. This could have the potential impact of reducing their engagement in the Middle East.
Over-stretch for Russia: Russia’s intervention in Kazakhstan under the umbrella of the Common Security Pact it has with former soviet states, is an added drain on its military capabilities, especially in view of its escalating mobilization on the Ukraine front. These added stresses could impact Russia’s presence in other areas, such as Syria, perhaps forcing it to reduce its footprint there.
On the other hand, Russian perception of events in Kazakhstan as another attempt by the West to threaten its national security, through interfering with a neighbor with which it shares a 7600 km border, could lead to an escalation of tensions with the West in the Middle East on important issues, such as the Iranian nuclear program and Hezbollah. It is worth noting that the Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov stated that: “the spread of radical religious ideologies in Central Asia is a result of the intervention by the US in the Middle East, under the pretext of defending Human Rights and democracy, that has destabilized the region”.
While the crisis in Kazakhstan appears to be contained for the moment, it will likely have negative effects for a while in the future, threatening Kazakhstan’s position as a beacon of stability in Central Asia. This potentially has the outcome to affect investments by some Gulf states in Kazakhstan, and possibly allow the reemergence of some terrorist groups that could spread their influence in the Middle East. On the other hand, it might generate the necessary circumstances to overcome the obstacles to a free trade deal between China and the GCC, as well as a positive economic outcome due to increased oil prices for the economies of some countries in the region.