The United States is expected to adopt a new approach towards redeploying its forces after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, focusing on the Asia-Pacific region to combat the rise of China. As US interest in several strategic areas, such as the Middle East, decreases, the Biden administration has prioritized other areas in the world. This shift in strategic interest has several US allies in the Middle East region fearing a similar scenario to Afghanistan. 

The Biden administration has taken some steps which appear to be aimed at allaying these fears, such as the visit of the Assistant Secretary of the State Department for Middle East Affairs Joy Hood to the city of El Qamashili in Eastern Syria. The visit was an effort to restart negotiations between the Kurdish parties in the region, that have ceased for months, in order to reach an agreement to establish an inclusive civilian administration. It also aimed to reassure its Kurdish allies they would not be abandoned. 

Worried Allies

Some US allies have expressed concern over the negative impact on the region if the Afghan scenario were to be repeated in the Arab region. In Iraq, there are fears that an American withdrawal could potentially encourage Iraqi militias, supported by Iran, to push for a complete takeover of Iraq, wiping out the successes achieved so far with American help in containing their influence. Another possible scenario in Iraq would be the breakout of a civil war, especially in view of events that followed the US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011.

Parallels have been drawn between what happened in Iraq in 2014, when the Islamic State (IS) overran the country, and the ability of the Taliban to quickly assert its control over Afghanistan. This could potentially happen again in Iraq, if the US were to withdraw, especially that there is no indication that the Iraqi state would be capable of filling the void left by a withdrawal of US forces.  One of the most contentious issues between Mostafa El Kazmy’s government, and other political forces that support armed militias, is how long US forces should stay in the country. 

The Kurds of Iraq have also expressed fears that the US intends to withdraw, leading to a similar scenario to that of Afghanistan, although there are arguments that the differences between the two cases make such an outcome unlikely. The same applies to the Kurds of Syria, who fear that a US withdrawal would mean a reversal of all the gains they achieved due to their active role in fighting ISIS. They also fear that any US withdrawal would embolden several parties to try to fill the void left by the US. 

An unlikely scenario

It is unlikely for the scenario unfolding in Afghanistan to be repeated in the Middle East region for a number of reasons, including: 

1-    The uncertain future of Afghanistan: There are no clear indications that the Taliban will be able to control the chaos in Afghanistan, as was demonstrated by the terrorist attack on Kabul airport on the 25th of August.

2-    US interest in containing adversaries: The US administration has made clear it will continue its efforts to confront  the activities and influence of adversaries, such as Iran and Russia, in the Arab region, as they impinge directly on US national interests. This was illustrated by the Biden administration’s insistence on widening negotiations on the nuclear deal to include Iran’s interferences in the region. Moreover, The Biden administration has not reduced the number of US troops in Syria and Iraq thus far, which is linked to ongoing attacks by Iran-supported Iraqi militias, on US forces there. 

3-    Strong criticism to withdrawal from Afghanistan: The Biden administration was subjected to severe domestic criticism for the withdrawal from Afghanistan to the point that some US legislators have called upon some administration figures to resign. There were also calls to postpone any further reductions in US forces in the Middle East. There is a sense that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has reduced America’s standing amongst its allies, as was indicated by the questions directed at National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan regarding the impact of the Afghanistan on countries such as Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan. 

4-    The Nature of US forces deployed in the region: US analysts point out that there are difficulties in withdrawing US forces in the Middle East region that are related to the size and nature of this deployment. The regional scope of this deployment and its integrated nature poses obstacles to efforts of decreasing troop size or withdrawal. 

   Potential Fallout from a US Withdrawal 

 US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 did not provide stability in the region, but had the opposite effect, as domestic tensions escalated, and organizations such as ISIS emerged. This forced the US to once more send its forces back into Iraq to help combat this terrorist organization.

It is likely that developments in Afghanistan will force the US administration to reconsider its policies in the Middle East, especially its plan to decrease US military presence there, and redeploying them to the Asia-Pacific region to face up to China. The US administration will most likely be very wary of adversaries seeking to replace it in the context of escalating crises in this region. Moreover, several regional countries have employed lobbyist to try to influence US policy in this respect, and to stress  the importance of the US role in sustaining peace and stability in the Middle East.