On June 29, 2023, Iraq initiated a military operation in Kirkuk province, led by the Northern Axis of the Popular Mobilization Forces, specifically in the “Dibis District” near Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region. The primary objective of this operation is to combat the terrorist groups associated with the organization known as “ISIS,” which are actively engaged in various areas within the province. It is worth noting that the most recent attack took place on June 29, 2023, targeting an Iraqi army barracks.

Kirkuk province holds significant importance as one of the key hubs of terrorist activities within Iraq. Together with Diyala and Salahuddin provinces, it forms a triangle where ISIS has established a strong presence. Moreover, operational activities are also prevalent in Anbar province, further underscoring the strategic significance of the military operation in Kirkuk province in the overall strategy to counter the threat posed by “ISIS.”

Main Motivations

The statement announcing the military operation did not specify its duration, but the launch of this operation is connected to a number of reasons within the context of the battle against the “ISIS” organization, which are as follows:

1. This new military operation can be viewed as a direct response to the increasing activities of ISIS groups in the province throughout the month of June. Based on the organization’s data shared on social media platforms, there were approximately five terrorist operations attributed to the organization in the province. It is noteworthy that this escalation in June followed a noticeable decrease in operational activity during the months of April and May, while the activity rate remained relatively consistent from June back to March.

In general, the operational activity rate of ISIS in the province has demonstrated stability, as indicated by quarterly averages. The total number of operations recorded in the first quarter of 2023 was approximately 9, which is comparable to the second quarter of 2023. Analyzing the operational activity trend of the organization since the beginning of 2023 reveals a consistent decline on a quarterly basis. For instance, during the last quarter of 2022, there were only about 10 operations, in contrast to approximately 28 operations reported during the third quarter of 2022. The following chart provides a visual representation of this trend:

2. Shift in patterns of terrorist operations: The initiation of the military operation in Kirkuk appears to be linked to notable changes in the patterns of attacks conducted by ISIS groups within the province. Upon examining the organization’s data, it becomes evident that there have been shifts in the attack patterns observed during May and June 2023. Specifically, there has been a noticeable emphasis on targeting military barracks through direct assaults on Iraqi forces.

During the previous month of May, the organization only announced one operation, which specifically targeted a military barracks. However, in June, out of a total of five recorded operations, four were aimed at military barracks. This indicates a distinct shift in their focus towards targeting these installations.

While ISIS groups have previously conducted operations targeting military barracks in Kirkuk province, the frequency of such attacks had been decreasing until the notable surge observed in May and June. Previously, their focus primarily revolved around targeting military vehicles using explosive devices, sniping Iraqi forces personnel, or launching direct attacks on military vehicles.

It is important to note that the recent increase in attacks on military barracks does not necessarily indicate a significant advancement in the operational capabilities of ISIS groups in the province. Instead, it suggests their endeavors to enhance their attack strategies and explore alternative avenues for inflicting damage.

3. Clearing rugged valleys in the province: Kirkuk province boasts a rugged geographical landscape, with certain areas characterized by valleys that serve as favorable terrain for ISIS groups. These valleys offer convenient hiding places and act as launching points for terrorist operations before retreating to their positions within these secluded areas.

An integral objective of the military operation is to meticulously search these difficult-to-access valleys, aiming to confront the organization’s activities in the near future and eradicate ISIS groups. While the military operation is a response to the surge in operational activity by ISIS groups within the province during the previous month of June, it also aligns with the ongoing strategy pursued by Iraqi forces in recent months, particularly since the previous year, which focuses on targeting the organization’s safe havens. The Iraqi forces have placed emphasis on launching preemptive strikes against the organization’s secure hideouts.

Furthermore, the strategic location of Kirkuk province holds significant geographical implications as it serves as a connecting point for several provinces. Notably, it facilitates connectivity between the cities of the Kurdistan Region and serves as a route towards the capital and the southern provinces. Moreover, Kirkuk shares borders with Salahuddin province, which extends further to Anbar province. Additionally, it is situated in close proximity to Nineveh province, which previously served as a major stronghold for the organization along Iraq’s western borders.

Given these factors, the military operation in Kirkuk aims to dismantle the triangle of operational activity for ISIS between Kirkuk, Diyala, and Salahuddin provinces. This objective becomes particularly crucial considering the observed decline in operational activity within Diyala province following multiple military operations.

4. Containing the threats posed by ISIS groups: Examining the operational activity trend of ISIS in Kirkuk province alone, spanning from the third quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2023, there is no substantial evidence indicating a significant surge in operational activity that would justify launching a military operation. The activity within the province has remained relatively consistent over the past few years. However, the decision to carry out the military operation may stem from concerns regarding the potential resurgence of ISIS groups and the possibility of their activities intensifying in the upcoming months.

Consequently, the implementation of this military operation aims to contain and restrict the activities of ISIS groups within the province. It serves as a means to apply continuous pressure on these groups, thereby thwarting the development of attacks and curbing the rise in the frequency of terrorist operations.

Complex Challenges

While the ongoing Iraqi military operation in Kirkuk province holds great significance in confronting ISIS groups, it also faces a number of challenges, including the following:

1. Limited geographic scope of the operation: As per the official Iraqi statement, the military operation aimed at countering ISIS in the province is confined solely to the “Dibis district.” This represents a restricted geographical area when compared to the overall expanse of the province. It is possible that ISIS may exploit this situation by redirecting some of its groups within or beyond the province, beyond the scope of the ongoing operation. Moreover, they may resort to defensive measures, such as deploying improvised explosive devices, to fortify their positions. Similar tactics have been observed in their attempts to counter military operations in Diyala province.

When we compare the geographic scope of the military operation in the “Dibis district” to the range of operational activity exhibited by ISIS, it becomes evident that only one operation was reported during the past month of June within the military operation area. In contrast, the neighboring “Rashad district,” which is not included in the military operation, witnessed three operations, making it the most targeted area by ISIS.

2. Operational Structure of ISIS: In response to the changing dynamics on the ground in Iraq following the decline of territories under its control in 2017, ISIS has implemented internal restructuring at the operational level. This adaptation occurred due to airstrikes carried out by Iraqi forces, with support from the international coalition led by the United States, in their efforts to combat ISIS.

The organization has reorganized its members into small groups consisting of a limited number of individuals, estimated to be no more than 10 members according to Iraqi assessments. This division is aimed at mitigating human losses within the organization and adapting to the airstrikes conducted by Iraqi forces.

As a result, it is anticipated that the military operation will encounter challenges in completely eradicating ISIS elements. The current organizational structure allows for a certain degree of freedom of movement and infiltration between areas, making precise detection a difficult task.

3. Availability of Accurate Intelligence Information: The current structure of ISIS necessitates the availability of precise intelligence information to effectively achieve the desired objectives of the military operation in Kirkuk province. These objectives encompass curtailing ISIS activities within the province and thoroughly searching the rugged valleys.

Although the Iraqi forces have conducted successful military operations that have effectively limited ISIS activity throughout Iraq, indicating the presence of accurate information regarding the movements of the organization’s members, this accomplishment has not been fully realized in the case of Kirkuk. Specifically, prior to the commencement of the military operation, there was a dearth of comprehensive intelligence information despite the escalating operations by the organization. If there had been ongoing intelligence gathering regarding the movements of ISIS elements within the province, coupled with a comprehensive assessment of the threat level, it would have been possible to launch a preemptive military operation prior to the escalation of their activities.

4. Possibility of Movement of ISIS Elements between Provinces: The borders between provinces suffer from fragile security, allowing ISIS elements to freely move between provinces, particularly due to their current strategy of dividing members into small groups. This poses a significant challenge not only to the military operation in Kirkuk but also to other ongoing military operations.

Due to these porous borders, ISIS members can easily traverse beyond the geographic scope of military operations and seek refuge in distant areas, patiently waiting for the conclusion of these operations. Additionally, the lack of comprehensive coordination between Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga forces affiliated with the Kurdistan Region, both actively engaged in counterterrorism efforts, creates an opportunity for the organization to infiltrate loosely controlled areas lacking strict security surveillance.

5. Weak Control over Liberated Areas: In light of the fragile security situation between provinces, one of the challenges that Iraq confronts following the conclusion of military operations, including the operation in Kirkuk, is the inadequate control over the areas that have been liberated. This deficiency encompasses both the level of security and the government’s capacity to provide essential services to citizens. While there may be successes in curtailing ISIS activity in certain regions, the organization’s elements can resurge once the military operation concludes, taking advantage of the resulting security vacuum.

To address this crisis, Iraq is implementing a gradual approach by transferring control of “city centers in the liberated provinces to the Ministry of Interior, following the eradication of 99% of ISIS forces,” as stated by Brigadier General Yahya Rasoul, the spokesperson for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces.

Ongoing Confrontation

Despite the Iraqi forces carrying out multiple military operations in Kirkuk province since 2017 to combat the operational activities of ISIS, the battle to completely eliminate the organization’s groups has yet to be definitively won. This underscores the ongoing nature of the efforts to confront and dismantle the organization’s groups and cells in various Iraqi provinces, particularly within the triangle formed by Kirkuk, Salahaddin, and Diyala. To achieve this, it is essential to maintain a strategy of preemptive operations that rely on intensive and continuous information gathering, even in the face of declining operational activities by the organization.